Germany goes centre-right - what to expect for the EU?

Germany voted centre-right but Merkel will be weakened in her own party and her government coalition. Her ability to lead Europe might thus suffer a blow. The party programmes will additionally lead to new frictions on the EU level.

Results: new centre-right government, losses to all governing parties

The two governing parties in Germany have lost the election. The German social democrats (SPD) lost 10 million votes since 1998 and achieved a 23,1% - that is the worst result since World War II. The conservatives (CDU/CSU), however, also got the second worst result (33,8%) since 1949. A new coalition government will be formed between the conservatives and the liberals (FDP). The latter secured the centre-right majority with an all-time high of 14,6% of the votes.

Internal consequences: Stronger opposition for Merkel

The consequences for Germany's role in the EU will not be significant, yet visible: Chancellor Merkel will be subject to heavy power games. It might thus become more difficult to remain a strong European leader who is able to make her promises to other heads of states reality.

Her small partner, the Bavarian conservatives (CSU) will challenge her, and so will the strong new coalition partner FDP. The CSU and the head of the party, Seehofer, suffered a severe blow and secured only 42,6% of the votes in Bavaria, also the worst result since 1949. The CSU is therefore not even half as strong as the liberals (6,5% nationally vs. 15%)- and will thus be the weakest partner in the ruling coalition. This will result in strong internal party opposition for Merkel and consistent power struggles. Merkel will also have to cope with the new strong man in the government, the liberal leader Westerwelle - who is likely to become the new foreign minister. Westerwelle will also claim several ministries for his party, among others the ministry for justice and the ministry for economy or for finance. Steinbrück, the social-democratic finance minister with a tendency for undiplomatic statements, will not represent Germany anymore in the EU.

External consequences: New programmatic priorities for EU agenda

The new German government parties head for some clashes with the EU. The liberals campaigned with a promise on reducing taxes - which will make it difficult to reduce the budget deficit. Considering the massive investments during the crisis and the tax reduction promise, the stability and growth pact might continuously be challenged by the new German government. Environmental policies will be increasingly subject to economic considerations. The German position on nuclear energy might be reconsidered, and it is possible that Germany will be more hesitant to push climate policies and solar energy. Germany might have a more business-friendly consumer policy but a stronger emphasis on privacy and data protection. German foreign politics will remain rather stable. Germany will remain committed to a multilateral global order with a strong EU - but the accession of Turkey to the EU is not welcomed in any of the coalition parties.

sources: spiegel online, BILD online, ZEIT online, süddeutsche online, European Movement